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 Euro and Crude trade at record highs. AUD trades above 92 c

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Number of posts : 440
Registration date : 2007-07-01

PostSubject: Euro and Crude trade at record highs. AUD trades above 92 c   Sun Oct 28, 2007 9:24 pm

Daily Forex Outlook

Euro and Crude trade at record highs. AUD trades above 92 cents

Sun, Oct 28 2007, 23:06 GMT
by Easy Forex Team[url=/search/contributors/contributor.aspx?Id=78bade2d-a167-4e9b-8eee-95ec630a204c]Easy Forex[/url]

Euro and Crude trade at record highs. AUD trades above 92 cents

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) eased further to end the week as markets pre-empt another rate cut from the Federal Reserve on October 31st. Poor data out of the U.S. gave support to this view as consumer confidence reports on Friday fell to 80.9 for the month of October from the previous 83.4 (the lowest level since May 2006), short of forecasted figures of 82. Compounding the bearish view on the USD came after Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, reported its first quarterly loss in 25 years as borrowers defaulted on loans, pushing the dollar to its third weekly decline against the Euro. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was up 53.33 points (1.94%) whilst the Dow Jones also gained 134.78 points (0.99%) Record Oil prices also ensured that consumer sentiment was weighed upon, with Crude oil trading at a high of US$92.22, before closing the session having gained US$1.40 a barrel to US$91.86.The Euro (EUR) traded at fresh record highs on a broadly weaker dollar following sustained credit turmoil. The Euro headed towards its third weekly gain against the greenback as consumer confidence did little to provide any relief. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4317 and a high of 1.4394 before closing the day at 1.4385 in the New York session.The Japanese Yen (JPY) failed to gain any boost from consumer price data, which fell for an eighth consecutive month in September, dousing any claims of an increase in interest rates in the near term. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 113.92 and a high of 114.57 before closing the day at 114.23 in the New York session.The Sterling (GBP) was flat against the USD and fell versus the Euro on growing expectations the BoE will look to cut rates by the end of 2007. Private reports viewed that the British economy will slow in growth in 2008 widening the Treasury’s budget deficit, whilst the BoE confirmed that commercial property and financial markets remained vulnerable to further turmoil. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 2.0483 and a high of 2.0573 before closing the day at 2.0519 in the New York session. Second tier data may hold significant importance to begin the week, with the UK economy expected to release data pertaining to consumer credit and mortgage lending.The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded at fresh 23 year highs, buoyed by a weaker USD and a surge in commodities and energy prices. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9078 and a high of 9178 before closing the day at 0.9171 in the New York session. In the early part of the Asian session, the AUD broke through key 0.9200 levels to at a high of 0.9215. The South African Rand (ZAR) posted its biggest weekly gain in more than 3 ½ years against the dollar, boosted by a rise in commodity prices and speculation of capital inflows from abroad. Overall the USDZAR traded with a low of 6.5451 and a high of 6.5040 before closing at 6.0520.Gold (XAU) traded at a fresh high since 1980 on its appeal to hedge inflationary risk. XAU traded with a low of 768.85 and a high of 784.15. TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro 1.4410
Initial support at 1.4316 (Oct 26 low) followed by 1.4248 (Oct 25 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4469 (This week’s open + last week’s range) followed by 1.4530 (Mar 8, 1995 trend high)Yen 114.10
Initial support is located at 113.78 (Oct 25 low) followed by 113.26 (Oct 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 115.04 (Oct 23 high) followed by 115.72 (Oct 18 high).Pound – 2.0540
Initial support at 2.0481 (Oct 26 low) followed by 2.0427 (Oct 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0574 (Oct 26 high) followed by 2.0654 (Jul 26 high)Australian Dollar – 0.9200
Initial support a 0.9076 (Oct 26 low) followed by 0.9010 (Oct 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9341 (This week’s open + (last week’s range * 1.618) followed by 0.9500 (Round number resistance).Gold – 785.60
Initial support at 769.80 (Oct 26 low) followed by 762.00 (Oct 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 785.90 (Oct 26 trend high) followed by 790.41 (602.42 plus 542.45 – 730.40)
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PostSubject: Re: Euro and Crude trade at record highs. AUD trades above 92 c   Sun Oct 28, 2007 9:25 pm

EUR/USD at All−time High

Sun, Oct 28 2007, 23:01 GMT
by Hans Nilsson[url=/search/contributors/contributor.aspx?Id=147a1a21-45c8-427a-998b-180293752fd3]CMS Forex[/url]

EUR/USD at All-time High

  • In NY trading Friday, the dollar declined versus most major currencies and fell to a fresh record low against the euro on recent weak US economic data, increasing speculation for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next week. The Canadian dollar climbed to the highest level since 1974 and the Australian dollar rose to the highest since 1984 on rising commodity prices. Gold surged to the highest since 1980 and crude oil rose to a record. The yen fell in cross trades as higher equities and commodities encouraged carry trades.
  • The EUR/USD broke the 1.43-area resistance and rose to a record high today on bets the Fed will cut interest rates at least 25-basis points at the October 31 FOMC meeting. The short-term uptrend looks positive; as long as the support of this uptrend is intact, the pair will possibly rise to the 1.4550-area. This is the level that the synthetic euro/dollar, compiled by using pre-euro-era D-mark rate, reached in September 1992. The risks to the EUR/USD bull market are a uniformly negative view of the dollar and a buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact reaction in the market following a possible Fed rate cut.

Financial and Economic News and Comments

US & Canada

  • The October US consumer confidence fell more than forecast to 80.9, the lowest level since May 2006, as the housing slump deepened and fuel prices increased, from 83.4 in September, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index showed. The expectations index fell to 70.1 from 74.1 and the current conditions gauge declined to 97.6 from 97.9. Inflation expectations remained at a 3.1% inflation rate in one year, as same as in the September survey.
  • Canadian manufacturers' optimism is waning for the fourth quarter as the Canadian dollar rose, new orders declined and many factory managers predicted weakening production. The percentage of factories predicting lower output in Q4 rose to 23% from 15% for Q3. The percentage of factories predicting higher output was 25%, just 2 percentage points higher than the number of factories predicting lower output. The difference between the two numbers is the lowest since the beginning of the year.

  • Luxembourg’s PM Jean-Claude Juncker said he preferred a strong euro over a weak one, adding that the euro was not yet at alarm-causing levels.
  • Germany’s consumer climate forecast for November fell to 4.9, following the revised figure of 6.7 in October, the German research institute Gfk consumer climate survey showed. The current decline at this relatively high level signals that German consumers are still anticipating positive economic growth for the future. The consumer confidence measure in the economic outlook fell to 39.1 from 40.7. The income expectations measure declined to -0.7 from 2.3 and the indicator of households’ willingness to spend dropped to -12.9 from -2.4.

  • Japanese core consumer prices declined 0.1% y/y, as expected, in September; the rate has been below 0 since January 2007, damping the outlook for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike. The core inflation rate for Tokyo was unchanged in October.

  • The end of Japan’s battle to escape deflation has been “delayed,” Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said at a briefing following the inflation data release.
  • Japan’s industrial production fell 1.4% m/m in September, slightly more than the median estimate for a 1.2% m/m decline.
FX Strategy Update

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PostSubject: Re: Euro and Crude trade at record highs. AUD trades above 92 c   Sun Oct 28, 2007 9:25 pm

Dollar Hit Record Low

Sun, Oct 28 2007, 23:19 GMT
by Yan Xu[url=/search/contributors/contributor.aspx?Id=0481a13a-9146-4410-8cd5-ba04b088a266][/url]

10/26/2007 03:15 pm: EUR/$..1.4385 $/JPY..114.12 GBP/$..2.0522 $/CHF..1.1639 AUD/$..0.9169 $/CAD..0.9622Dollar Hit Record Low

The dollar extended its loss versus the euro and sterling on expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates again next week. The dollar index slumped to a fresh all-time low at 77.035. The euro approached 1.44 versus the dollar, while the sterling rose to as high as 2.0571.This week¡¯s economic data, including housing sales, durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims and today¡¯s consumer sentiment index, all showed signs of economic growth slow down. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell from 83.4 to 80.9 in October, below the estimate of 82.It is widely expected that the Fed will lower rates by a quarter-percentage point to 4.00%. Under the pressure of housing slump and rising credit costs, the nation¡¯s economic growth may slow down in the future. The overall sentiment on the dollar is bearish.Eurogroup Chairman Junker said in a newspaper interview published today that last week¡¯s G7 statement limited to the yuan showed they did not reach agreement on the yen and dollar foreign exchange range. He added that he preferred a stronger euro and the currency¡¯s current trading level was not yet an alarm-causing level. The euro may rise further to reach next target area at 1.4420-50 versus the dollar.EURUSD will face interim resistance at 1.44, followed by 1.4420 and 1.4450. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.4480, backed by 1.45. Support starts at 1.4350, backed by 1.4320, 1.43 and 1.4280. Subsequent floors are eyed at 1.4250.GBPUSD encounters interim resistance at 2.0550, backed by 2.0570 and 2.06. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 2.0620, followed by 2.0650 and 2.0680. On the downside, support begins at 2.05, followed by 2.0470 and 2.0450. Additional floors are eyed at 2.0430, backed by 2.04 and 2.0350.
Rising Oil Boosted CAD & AUD

Rising oil prices boosted the commodity currencies, such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. Crude Oil hit record high at 92.22 per barrel today. The Canadian dollar strengthened to 0.9592 versus the dollar, while the Australian dollar rallied to 0.9176 against the dollar. With increasing demand of gas in the coming winter, oil prices are likely to surge higher.
Yen Fell on Core CPI Decline

The yen fell against high yielding currencies after a report showed core inflation declined in Japan, indicating the end of deflation fight may delay. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI dropped 0.1% in September. The euro rose from 163 to round 164.50 versus the dollar, and the dollar remained around 114 against the dollar.USDJPY encounters interim resistance at 114.30, backed by 114.50 and 114.80. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 115, followed by 115.20 and 115.50. On the downside, support begins at 114 and 113.80, followed by 113.50. Additional floors are eyed at 113.20, backed by 113 and 112.70.
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