SACO INVEST

Fórum da Saco Invest
 
HomeHome  FAQFAQ  SearchSearch  RegisterRegister  MemberlistMemberlist  UsergroupsUsergroups  Log in  

Share | 
 

 GDP=4.9% (Also, I Have a Bridge for Sale in Brooklyn)

View previous topic View next topic Go down 
AuthorMessage
gastaoss



Number of posts : 440
Registration date : 2007-07-01

PostSubject: GDP=4.9% (Also, I Have a Bridge for Sale in Brooklyn)   Sat Dec 01, 2007 1:11 pm

GDP=4.9% (Also, I Have a Bridge for Sale in Brooklyn)



posted on: November 30, 2007




Print
Email






Here's the WSJ lede on GDP:
<blockquote>
"The U.S. economy soared last summer, growing at a
rate much stronger than earlier estimated, but the earnings of
companies were flat, the government reported Thursday.


Gross domestic product rose at a 4.9% annual rate July
through September, the fastest quarterly pace since 7.5% in
third-quarter 2003, the Commerce Department said.

The new, 4.9% estimate for third-quarter 2007 GDP
reflected a revision up from a previously reported 3.9% increase.
Higher inventories and exports were behind the government's revision to
GDP, a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy."
</blockquote>
Bloomberg added:
<blockquote>
"The world's largest economy grew at an annual rate of 4.9
percent, the most in four years, according to revised data today
from the Commerce Department in Washington. The pace is a
percentage point stronger than estimated last month and follows
a 3.8 percent rate in the second quarter." (emphasis added)
</blockquote>
This
4.9% number is one of the more "fanciful" government releases you will
see in your lifetime, (outside of the state run media that exist only
within totalitarian dictatorships).
Did this past quarter feel like the strongest growth quarter in 4 years?
Let's begin with what we know about Q3 prices: They saw significant increases -- yet the price index deflator was a 9 year record low of 0.9%. Rex Nutting observed: "Because of the way the price index is constructed, it likely understates
real-world inflation, and thus overstates real growth."

Residential
fixed investment, the GDP component that includes spending on housing,
plunged by 19.7% in the third quarter (but Investments in structures
increased 14.3%).
Profits for the 3rd quarter flipped negative, dropping 8.5%.
We have seen consumer spending falter,
with the crucial opening salvo of the holiday weekend down 3.5%.
That's no surprise, given that second-quarter wages were revised lower
by $44.8
billion. As a result, real disposable incomes fell 0.8% in the second
quarter, instead of rising 0.6% as the Commerce Department had
previously
reported.
~~~
Question: How can Q3 GDP be 4.9%
with corporate earnings, housing and retail sales so awful? Forget
Goldilocks, this fairy tale sounds more like Cinderella . . .


Chart courtesy of Barron's
Sources:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2007 (PRELIMINARY)
CORPORATE PROFITS: THIRD QUARTER 2007
U.S. Department of Commerce, November 29, 2007 8:30 a.m.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2007/gdp307p.htm
Economy Grew 4.9% in 3rd Quarter, Up From Previous Estimate of 3.9%
JEFF BATER
WSJ, November 29, 2007 9:38 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119634282761107912.html
U.S. Economy Expanded at 4.9% Rate in Third Quarter
Courtney Schlisserman
Bloomberg, Nov. 29 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ajeZ0OYVe4.o&
U.S. GDP revised up to 4.9% for third quarter
Corporate profits fall even excluding subprime write-downs
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch, 9:14 AM ET Nov 29, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/22o75t
Back to top Go down
View user profile
 
GDP=4.9% (Also, I Have a Bridge for Sale in Brooklyn)
View previous topic View next topic Back to top 
Page 1 of 1
 Similar topics
-
» UK's tech-engineering global leader Cleveland Bridge enters Sri Lanka
» GREAT NEWS FOR AEL !!!!
» Economist expected a large decline in oil prices in 2016 and recognizes solutions to bridge the budget deficit
» Government to raise taxes to bridge government expenditure?
» Trump Dumps Christie Over Bridge-gate: 'Stupid Thug Had to Go'

Permissions in this forum:You cannot reply to topics in this forum
SACO INVEST :: SACO INVEST-
Jump to: