gastaoss
Number of posts : 440 Registration date : 2007-07-01
| Subject: DEMAND AND SUPPLY Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:45 pm | |
| DEMAND AND SUPPLYBy BOO CHANCO
Since 2001 the dollar has lost more than half its value against the euro. It now costs nearly $1.40 to buy one euro. And it isn’t just the euro that seems to be growing stronger against the US dollar. It has declined against many other major world currencies, and even including minor ones like our peso, reflecting the dollar’s loss of purchasing power.The Philippine StarThere is this joke circulating in financial circles that the once “almighty US dollar,” is fast turning into the “new American peso.” Since 2001 the dollar has lost more than half its value against the euro. It now costs nearly $1.40 to buy one euro. And it isn’t just the euro that seems to be growing stronger against the US dollar. It has declined against many other major world currencies, and even including minor ones like our peso, reflecting the dollar’s loss of purchasing power.As the Los Angeles Times reported, “in much of the world — from Brazil to Poland to Thailand — one dollar buys less than it did a year ago, and far less than it did four years ago. On Friday, the US currency hit a 30-year low against its Canadian peer.”There isn’t a single explanation for why currencies rise and fall, the LA Times explains, but many experts believe that the sliding dollar is largely a function of the nation’s borrowing binge of the last two decades. That has left the US with a yawning trade deficit and the fact that it is deep in debt to foreigners.Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, blames President George W. Bush for America’s current economic problems. Greenspan says Bush pays too little attention to financial discipline. In a book to be published this week, In The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World, Mr. Greenspan says Mr. Bush ignored his advice to veto “out-of-control” bills that sent the US deeper into deficit.In theory, a currency is supposed to reflect to some extent, the underlying health of the economy that stands behind it. “The basic thing is, we have been living beyond our means,” Ted Truman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington told the LA Times.A dwindling dollar is, in effect, the market’s attempt to slow those trends, Truman said. The flip side of a weak dollar is that it makes US goods less expensive for foreign buyers. America shipped a record $137.7 billion worth of goods and services abroad in July, 15 percent more than in July 2006, government data show. That’s good news for American exporters.But even then, Americans still bought more from the rest of the world — including foreign oil — than they sold or exported. Imports reached $196.9 billion in July, up five percent from a year earlier.The gap between imports and exports is the trade deficit. The broadest measure of a nation’s trade picture is the so-called current account, which includes investment flows. The deficit in the current account for the US reached a record $811 billion last year, more than twice what it was as recently as 2001.The LA Times reports that “this year the deficit has been shrinking modestly, helped by the surge in exports. But the gap remains massive — another reason, many economists say, that the dollar is likely to keep falling in value… Some believe, however, that the trend could speed up.”That’s bad for the world economy too. “If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets — driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans’ purchasing power, said Peter Schiff, who heads money management firm Euro Pacific Capital.”The danger, the LA Times warns, is that a Fed rate cut could spark a much faster downward spiral in the currency. “That could occur if lower interest rates on dollar-denominated bonds caused foreign investors to balk at buying more, or encouraged them to sell US securities and invest their money elsewhere in the world. Worse, wholesale flight of foreign money from US bonds could drive up long-term interest rates if the Treasury and other debtors have to pay more to attract investors to their securities.”No wonder John Gokongwei, the chairman emeritus of JG Summit told us over dinner in Shanghai last week, he is worried about rough times ahead. He is worried about the view expressed by US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson that the ongoing subprime mortgage crisis is going to be worse than three of the worst things that ever happened to the global financial system — the Asian crisis of 1997, the $50-billion Mexican meltdown of 1994-95 and the $40-billion Russian default of 1998.A US recession, Mr. John said, could nip in the bud the boom in the Philippine real estate market. We could end up with a lot of unfinished superstructures of skyscraping condos. Pinoy expats who are fueling all those grand condominium projects will be adversely affected by the US credit crunch. Mr. John said that under US laws, they have the right to ask for the return of deposits they made on local condo units sold to them in America.Mr. John’s advice: stay liquid and borrow long term.
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gastaoss
Number of posts : 440 Registration date : 2007-07-01
| Subject: Re: DEMAND AND SUPPLY Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:47 pm | |
| (I-Newswire) - Last week the Euro hit an all time high against the US dollar after speculation intensified that the FOMC ( US equivalent of the bank of England ) will cut rates to ease the credit crunch which has plagued the equity markets and lending institution world wide. The USD also lost against other currencies, slipping against both the pound and the yen, but the main action was with the Euro says Betonmarkets.com's Michael Wright.
There are implications from this; the Euro's strength threatens to make European exports more expensive, and therefore less competitive. However, the impact so far hasn't been too dramatic due to the currency's movement this year being gradual rather than abrupt.
The weakening dollar conversely makes U.S. exports more competitive, which is good news for American manufacturers but means rising prices for imports to the U.S. The dollar's decline also diminishes the spending power of American tourists in Europe, while attracting to the U.S. visitors from Europe seeking cheaper accommodation and shopping.
The dollar, which has hovered within a few cents of its record low over recent weeks, had come under new pressure since the U.S. Labour Department issued unexpectedly poor August jobs data. That report strengthened speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September 18th meeting by as much as half a percentage point. A cut from the current rate, 5.25 percent, would be the first reduction in four years.
Lower interest rates, used to jump-start the economy, can weaken a currency by giving investors lower returns on investments denominated in the currency. The European Central Bank last week put its own two-year run of gradual interest rate rises on hold but left many economists still expecting a quarter-point increase from the current 4 percent before the end of the year.
With the countries seemingly going in opposite directions with their interest rates, and economies, it means that there could be further gains for the European currency. The key to this will be in the wording from the FOMC, if the statement is dovish it could open up the possibility of an appreciation in the euro by as much as 3 cents.
With Betonmarkets.com you can take advantage of this potential situation by buying a "no touch" trade on the EUR/ USD. This compensates you if the currency doesn't touch a certain predetermined level for the duration of the trade. A no touch option with a 25 day duration and 400 "pips" or 0.04 Euros below the current spot price, returns 10% ROI. This means you win if the Euro continues to rise against the dollar or doesn't dip too severely. | |
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